The biggest storyline throughout the 2024 Major League Baseball season has been the high number of pitchers going to the IL with arm injuries. Arm injuries have been a part of the game for decades, but the number of injuries has increased exponentially in recent years. There were more Tommy John surgeries last year in professional baseball than the entire decade of the 1990s. While I am happy that there is a surgery that can help to repair the damaged UCL in the elbow, my fear is that players are being pushed beyond their limit because the surgery is a “safeguard” of sorts.
Both pitching coaches and front offices have placed a big emphasis on pitchers having a two to three pitch mix with high velocity on their fastball in recent years. Look no further than Jacob deGrom, Spencer Strider, and Shohei Ohtani. What do these pitchers have in common apart from being some of the most dominant in the game? They are currently ALL on the shelf due to undergoing and/or recovering from their second Tommy John surgery. Ask any medical staff member in professional baseball and they’ll tell you how throwing a fastball with the high velocity of Major League pitchers is not a natural motion for the elbow. Repeating this motion is unsustainable over time.
Many people have speculated as to a solution. The old school mentality suggests doing away with the pitch clock, thevery thing that has brought the game back to relevancy since the 1998 Home Run Chase. That is not the answer to this issue. Neither is load-management, limiting the workload of starting pitchers throughout the course of a season. During his rookie season in 2012, Stephen Strasburg had his innings limited and was not able to pitch more than 160 innings. Despite the Nationals’ best efforts to preserve the young fireballer, he still endured multiple surgeries on his arm over the course of his career. A career that came to a tragic end due to irreparable nerve damage in his elbow. Jacob deGrom was on a pitch limit each time he returned from the array of injuries in his career, but today is recovering from his second Tommy John surgery.
For the solution to this injury epidemic, the baseball world should look to one man as the model for pitchers going forward, my pick for the 2024 National League Cy Young Award, Ranger Suarez.
When I watch Ranger Suarez, I see shades of Atlanta Braves legend, Greg Maddux. While the velocity of his fastball is low, Ranger is able to locate it with precision and work in a curveball, changeup, cutter, sinker and the occasional slider. This large arsenal keeps opposing hitters on their toes during at bats. Suarez’s fastball tops out at around 92-93 miles per hour, which is the average velocity of deGrom’s slider for reference.
As exceptional as Braves ace Spencer Strider was last season, it is much easier to adjust and make solid contact when hitters only have to anticipate two pitches (fastball/slider). Suarez has five pitches to keep hitters off balance, and he can use all of them to put hitters away. Oftentimes pitchers will have one pitch they use consistently to strike someone out.
Suarez demonstrated the effectiveness of his pitching style in his complete game shutout against the Rockies. He utilized his cutter, curveball, and changeup to strike out ten Colorado hitters. While he throws his fastball the most, there is not much disparity in the usage of his secondary pitches:
There’s an old adage in baseball, chicks dig the long ball. This can also be applied to the strikeout. A high number of strikeouts by a starting pitcher riles up the fans both in attendance and watching at home. It’s fun to watch the highlights after the game, but getting a strikeout requires a minimum of three pitches which can quickly drive up the pitch count. The emphasis on throwing as hard as you can to get strikeouts is leading to shorter outings and higher pitch counts than in previous seasons.
Suarez is a groundball pitcher who doesn’t rack up strikeouts. This allows him to be more efficient with his pitch count, keep hitters off balance at the plate and avoid the stress on the elbow that comes with throwing at high velocities. Improving pitch counts and going deeper into games is something that is no longer commonplace in the sport today. Short starts with high pitch counts is an ever increasing issue in baseball recently. Major League starters are averaging just over 5 IP per start in 2024.
The proof is in the pudding. Through seventeen starts this season, Suarez is averaging six innings per start. He leads the National League in Wins, ERA and ERA+ while placing in the top 10 in WAR, WHIP and HR/9. While wins are not as valued in the sabermetric era as they once were, having a pitcher who can pitch deep into games while keeping hitters at bay is as valuable as ever.
The most notorious story of a player who had arm injuries that derailed his career was Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax. He stood out to Dodger scouts in the 50s because of the tremendous velocity of his fastball. Sound familiar?
While the speed of Koufax’s fastball was remarkable, he struggled terribly trying to locate the strike zone. One day his catcher, Norm Sherry, told him bluntly that he did not need to throw as hard as he possibly could to retire hitters.
Once he decreased his velocity and placed more emphasis on his control, he became the greatest southpaw the game has ever seen. Unfortunately, those early career injuries resulted in him retiring at age 31. This served as a cautionary tale for pitchers for many years. The advent of Tommy John surgery should not change that.
Throwing fastballs at reduced and sustainable velocities while mixing in equally effective secondary pitches and locating properly will result in fewer arm injuries and allow starters to pitch deeper into games. Longer outings allow the manager to be strategic with his bullpen and not wear relievers out over the course of the season. Pitching and defense wins championships and the healthier the pitching staff, the better positioned a team is to make a deep run in the month of October. Front offices are constantly looking for anything that will give them the edge, this strategy will catch the rest of the league off balance, literally and figuratively.
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